As we approach the halfway mark of October, every day seems to bring a major event. The United States cut interest rates in September, China delivered a triple blow in the same month, and global capital is betting on the Chinese stock market. A covert battle for capital is brewing between China and the United States.

The non-farm payroll data on October 4th, the CPI on October 10th, and the number of initial jobless claims all exceeded expectations. Is the U.S. economy doing well or not? The U.S. fiscal deficit has soared to $1.8 trillion, with the interest payments on U.S. debt leaping to the top of the list. Between preventing funds from flowing into the Chinese stock market and dealing with high debt levels, how will the United States make its choice? A potential "bankruptcy crisis" is gradually approaching, and three major prophecies are coming true one by one, seemingly leaving the United States with little time.

Are the three major prophecies coming true one by one?

The United States, the financial hegemon, probably never anticipated that it would encounter its biggest trouble in the field it excels in the most.

Those familiar with American history know that the United States has been around for over two hundred years, and U.S. debt has a history of over two hundred years as well. When the speed of wealth creation cannot keep up with the speed of U.S. debt interest payments, and when the interest payments surpass the defense budget, Musk's prophecy that "the United States is heading towards bankruptcy" is coming true in the current United States, which is spending more than it is taking in.The ratio of public debt to GDP has taken a much steeper path than predicted by the US Congressional Budget Office beforehand, akin to pressing the fast-forward button on a potential US debt default, creating an atmosphere of impending doom, with a chilling corporate survival battle brewing.

This also confirms the prophecy of Wall Street heavyweight Moody's, who stated, "US debt will once again face a historic default."

Compared to the data recently released by the Federal Reserve, the minutes of the Fed's September meeting have dropped a deep-water bomb into the market. The divergence among policymakers is far greater than imagined, which means that as long as the US employment data continues to perform well in the future, the Fed is highly unlikely to cut interest rates by as much as 50 basis points.

The bond market currently fears the most to hear the phrase, "No rateInterest rate cuts have uncertainties, yet it is a fact that the United States' high debt has no solution. The probability of the U.S. heading towards bankruptcy and debt default is increasing, and a series of chain reactions are taking place, with the collapse of the U.S. debt market also being realized.

Faced with preventing capital from entering China and its own crisis, what will the United States ultimately choose?

The desperate United States

Raising interest rates, debt faces default, and the U.S. credit collapses globally.

Moreover, Japan had previously cooperated with the United States, using the depreciation of the yen to highlight the strong dollar. However, the yen, which kept hitting new lows, could not hold on any longer and began to betray the United States, starting to raise interest rates. If the United States raises interest rates again, who will do so? In other words, who will still play along with the United States?

Lowering interest rates, not only cannot achieve the goal of bursting China's economy, but in the end, it will also serve as a wedding dress for China. How can the United States be willing?

What will the United States choose?

In fact, the current situation has already revealed the path the United States will ultimately take.Three pieces of ill-timed data that exceeded expectations have already disrupted the direction of global capital. The new spring of China's stock market seems to be fleeting, and with it comes the awakening of a strong US dollar.

If one has been paying attention to the recent interest rate cuts in the United States, they would sense a strong signal that the US is releasing data that exceeds expectations, seemingly telling the outside world that there will be no more rate cuts. However, Federal Reserve officials are coming out one after another, claiming that they will support further rate cuts.

This ambiguous information gap may be precisely what the Federal Reserve is playing with in the game of interest rate cuts, using it to cause significant fluctuations in the US dollar index.