After the U.S. stock market closed on Thursday, Biden and Trump will hold their first presidential debate, with the economy being an important topic. Prior to this, the latest released data directly point to a softening U.S. economy, causing U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar to decline.

Last week, the number of first-time unemployment claims in the U.S. decreased, but the continued claims rose to the highest level since the end of 2021, which is two and a half years. In May, core durable goods orders fell by 0.6%, marking the largest decline this year, indicating weak corporate equipment spending. The final value of U.S. real GDP for the first quarter was 1.4%, in line with expectations but lower than the initial value of 1.6%. The core PCE inflation for the quarter increased by 3.7%, higher than the expected and previous value of 3.6%. Personal spending growth is weak, indicating that the economy is losing momentum. High interest rates also led to an unexpected drop in the U.S. existing home sales contract volume index in May to a record low.

This year's voting member and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic praised the cooling trend of inflation shown in May's CPI, reiterating the Fed's expectation to cut interest rates once in 2024, estimated to occur in the fourth quarter, with the possibility of four rate cuts next year. However, voting member Governor Bowman once again spoke hawkishly, reiterating that the timing for rate cuts is not yet mature and is willing to support rate hikes if inflation rebounds.

The market is focusing on the Fed's more important inflation indicator on Friday - the May Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), with the core data expected to grow by 2.6% year-on-year, weaker than the previous value of 2.8%. Futures traders still bet that the probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates in September is as high as 70%, and two rate cuts this year remain the most likely scenario, meaning that the market's easing expectations are always greater than the Fed's outlook.

After cutting interest rates in May, the Riksbank maintained its rates unchanged but increased its expectation for rate cuts this year from two times to "up to three times," citing a more optimistic inflation outlook. The market generally expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates twice this year, but some committee members emphasize that there may only be one more rate cut this year.

The media reported that the Bank of Japan conducted a survey of bond market participants on its bond reduction plan. The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds rose to the highest level in thirteen years. The yen rose slightly against the dollar, still not reaching the 160 mark, close to the thirty-eight-year low of 160.88 touched on Wednesday.

The S&P and Nasdaq have risen for three consecutive days, approaching their highest levels, with technology and AI stocks rising together, but Nvidia fell nearly 2%, while Amazon, Google, and Microsoft hit new highs.

On Thursday, June 27th, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose after opening nearly flat, with the S&P erasing a 0.2% gain and turning negative within two hours of opening, while the Nasdaq, which had risen by 0.5%, also turned negative, and the Dow opened low and rose, once rising by more than 120 points. During the session, the S&P and Dow both turned negative and eventually closed slightly higher, with the Russell small-cap stocks, closely related to the economic cycle, leading with a 1% gain.

At the start of trading, the internet stock index ETF and the global technology stock index ETF led the gains, but most semiconductors and Chinese concept stocks fell, with the S&P real estate sector leading and consumer staples performing poorly. During the session, the Global X Cybersecurity ETF rose by 3%, the best since November last year, with BlackBerry rising by 14%, marking the best single-day performance since August last year.

As of the close, the S&P and Nasdaq both rose for three consecutive days to a one-week high and are approaching the historical high set last Tuesday. The Dow has risen for two consecutive days from a one-week low, and the Russell small-cap stocks have stopped falling for two consecutive days to a two-week high:The S&P 500 index closed up 4.97 points, a gain of 0.09%, at 5482.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 36.26 points, a gain of 0.09%, at 39164.06. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 53.53 points, a gain of 0.30%, at 17858.68.

The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2%, with the Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, edging higher. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 1%, and the "fear index" VIX fell more than 2% for two consecutive days to 12.24.

The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq fluctuated several times during the session, with small-cap stocks reaching their highest levels.

Star tech stocks rose across the board. "Metaverse" Meta gained 1.3% approaching its historical high, Amazon rose 2.2% to a new historical high with a market value close to $2 trillion, Tesla turned positive with a 0.5% gain to its highest in nearly four months, Netflix rose about 1% approaching its highest, Google A gained 0.8% to return to a new high; Apple rose 0.4% for four consecutive days, with a market value of $3.22 trillion ranking second in the U.S. stock market; Microsoft rose 0.2% for three consecutive days to a new high, with a market value of $3.36 trillion as the largest in the U.S. stock market.

Chip stocks continued to consolidate. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 1% before closing down 0.6%, approaching 5400 points to a two-week low, with the industry ETF SOXX down 0.5%. Nvidia fell nearly 2%, ending two consecutive days of gains, having risen 6.8% on Tuesday and fallen 6.7% on Monday to the largest drop in two months, with a market value of $304 billion ranking third in the U.S. stock market, and Nvidia's double long ETF fell 4%; Broadcom fell 0.3% to a two-week low; Qualcomm fell more than 1% to a five-week low, ARM turned positive with a gain of more than 1%, TSMC's U.S. stock rose 2% before turning slightly negative, Lam Research nearly erased a gain of 2.7%, Applied Materials nearly erased a gain of 2.4%, Micron Technology fell more than 7%, having all set new highs last week; Intel turned positive with a gain of 0.2%, but AMD rose more than 1%.

AI concept stocks rose together. CrowdStrike rose nearly 2% approaching a new high, Oracle rose 1.4% ending five days of decline away from a new high, SoundHound.ai rose 0.3%, BigBear.ai rose more than 7%, C3.ai rose more than 3%, Snowflake rose nearly 4% further away from the 17-month low, Palantir rose 4.7%, Adobe rose more than 3%, Dell rose nearly 1%, Advanced Micro Devices rose more than 7%, but IBM turned negative with a decline of 0.6%.

In terms of news, OpenAI signed a multi-year content usage agreement with Time magazine, with reports stating that OpenAI's annual revenue from model access is about $1 billion. Micron Technology's third-quarter results exceeded expectations but the guidance for the next quarter was not bright enough. Reports say that Apple will use new battery technology in the iPhone 16. Wells Fargo says the AI boom will benefit industrial and raw material stocks.

Chinese concept stocks fell sharply. The China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell 2.8%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell 2.3%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 2.2%, approaching 5800 points, falling for the seventh time in nine trading days to the lowest in four and a half months.

Among popular stocks, JD.com fell 4.5%, Baidu fell 1.3%, Pinduoduo fell 4.6%. Alibaba fell 2.4%, Tencent ADR fell 1.8%, Bilibili fell 2.9%, NIO fell more than 5%, XPeng Motors fell 6.7%, Li Auto fell more than 3%. But UBS's Hu Yifan is optimistic about the potential of Chinese internet platforms in AI.

Other stocks with significant changes include:Jeans manufacturer Levi's plummeted over 15% to an 11-week low, with quarterly revenue falling short of expectations.

Walgreens, the retail pharmacy that was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in February, dropped over 22% to a 27-year low, marking the worst performance in over fifty years, as it lowered its full-year profit forecast, citing a challenging U.S. consumer environment.

Walgreens plunged over 22% to a 27-year low, marking the worst performance in over fifty years.

Pet e-commerce platform Chewy surged over 34% but closed down by 0.3%, completely erasing the surge triggered by the "retail investor leader Roaring Kitty" posting a cartoon dog image, with Chewy's co-founder Ryan Cohen currently serving as the CEO of GameStop.

Thirty-one of the largest U.S. banks passed the Federal Reserve's stress tests, with stock buyback plans expected to be announced after the market closes on Friday. Goldman Sachs fell over 2%, but JPMorgan Chase rose by 0.9%, with the company rarely stating that the Federal Reserve overestimated a key revenue metric, potentially delaying the announcement of shareholder return plans.

After passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests, Goldman Sachs fell over 2%, but JPMorgan Chase rose by 0.9%.

European stocks generally fell, with only German stocks rising, as French and Italian stock indices both dropped by 1%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down by 0.43%, marking three consecutive days of decline to a one-week low, with oil and gas stocks leading the gains, while retail stocks fell by over 1%. L'Oréal's French stock fell by over 5%, the deepest in five months, as it lowered its expectations for the beauty market growth rate. H&M's European and U.S. stocks both fell by about 13%, with second-quarter profit growth below expectations, potentially failing to achieve the full-year profit margin target.

Economic data suppressed U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield detaching from a two-week high, and the French-German core bond yield spread at its widest in twelve years.

Awaiting the significant inflation data on Friday, and the latest softer U.S. economic data, both contributed to suppressing U.S. Treasury yields.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, more sensitive to monetary policy, fell by up to 5 basis points to 4.7%, detaching from a one-week high. The 10-year benchmark bond yield fell by up to 4 basis points to 4.27%, detaching from a two-week high, having both previously dropped to their lowest levels since early April over a week ago.The benchmark 10-year German bund yield in the eurozone edged down slightly, hovering around 2.45%, while the two-year yield fell by nearly 2 basis points. On the eve of the parliamentary election TV debate in France, the yield on 10-year French government bonds rose by about 4 basis points, leading Italian bond yields to rise by more than 3 basis points. Safe-haven sentiment pushed the spread between French and German bond yields to a high of 83 basis points, the widest since 2012.

Oil prices rose by over 1% to their highest level in nine weeks since the end of April, with prices surging by more than $1 during trading, with U.S. crude oil once breaking through the $82 mark.

WTI crude oil futures for August settled up by $0.84, or about 1.04%, at $81.74 a barrel, approaching the April 26 closing price of $82.35. Brent crude futures for August settled up by $1.14, or about 1.34%, at $86.39 a barrel, approaching the April 29 closing price of $86.42.

U.S. crude oil, WTI, reached a high of $1.13 or a 1.4% increase during trading, breaking through the psychological level of $82, recovering nearly half of the losses since last Thursday, with the main contract last week reaching the highest level since April 30 for three consecutive trading days. The more actively traded international Brent crude oil futures for September once rose by $1.11 or 1.3%, returning to above $85, both detaching from a one-week low.

Analysts have pointed out that the escalation of Middle East tensions between Israel and Lebanon, with concerns over supply disruptions outweighing anxieties about weak U.S. demand, will lead to oil prices achieving a monthly gain for the first time since March, and it is not ruled out that they could once again break through $90 per barrel as they did in April.

However, last week, contrary to expectations, U.S. EIA crude oil and gasoline inventories rose instead of falling. J.P. Morgan stated that the coastal flooding caused by tropical storms has severely affected U.S. gasoline demand, with gasoline consumption falling below 9 million barrels per day for the first time in three weeks.

The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose by up to 2.7%, detaching from a near two-week low, while ICE UK futures also rose by more than 2%. U.S. natural gas August contracts fell by more than 2%, losing the $2.70 trading level for the lowest in three weeks, with the year-to-date gain narrowing to nearly 8%. U.S. gasoline futures expanded their year-to-date gain to 21%.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six major rivals, fell from its eight-week high, with the yen trading at 160.80, hovering around the lowest since 1986, and the offshore renminbi at less than 7.30 yuan.

The U.S. dollar index, DXY, which measures the currency against a basket of six major rivals, fell by as much as 0.3% and once again failed to hold the 106 level, detaching from its eight-week high since May 1. The dollar has already risen by more than 1% in June, with a cumulative increase of about 4.6% in 2024.

The euro rose by up to 0.4% against the dollar and once again exceeded 1.07, detaching from its intraday low since May 1, but fell by about 1.4% in June, dragged down by political turmoil due to the early parliamentary elections in France starting this weekend.The British pound rose 0.4% against the US dollar, moving away from its six-week low since mid-May, and is expected to achieve a weekly increase for the first time in a month. This year, it has only slightly fallen against the US dollar, making it one of the best-performing currencies. Some analysts suggest that if the UK were to have a Labour government or improve its relationship with the EU, it could have a positive impact.

The Japanese yen slightly turned positive against the US dollar, still not reaching the 160 mark, trading at 160.80, approaching the lowest since 1986, which was 160.88 on Wednesday. The Japanese Finance Minister reiterated the need to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, but the market believes that unless the significant difference in bond yields between Japan and the US changes, the yen's downturn will be hard to hide. In June, the yen fell about 2% against the US dollar, and it has already fallen by 12% this year. The offshore renminbi slightly fell against the US dollar, still not reaching 7.30 yuan.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies rebounded collectively. The largest market cap leader, Bitcoin, rose by 1.6% but still did not reach $62,000. On Monday, it fell below the psychological round number of $60,000 for the first time since May 3rd and even briefly lost $59,000, setting a nearly eight-week low since May 1st. The second-largest, Ethereum, rose by more than 2% and broke through $3,400 again, slightly moving away from the five-week low since mid-May.

Spot gold rose by more than 1% to over $2,330, while silver rose by 1.7% and then significantly narrowed, with copper in London setting a ten-week low again.

The retreat of the US dollar and US Treasury yields is favorable for precious metal prices. COMEX August gold futures rose by 0.9% to $2,334.30 per ounce at the end of the day, but COMEX July silver futures fell by 0.2% to $29.185 per ounce at the end of the day.

Spot gold rose by more than $32 or 1.4%, returning to the psychological round number of $2,300 and approaching $2,330, moving away from the nearly three-week low since June 7th. Last week, it approached $2,370, setting a two-week high, and the gold price has fallen by 5% from the historical high of about $2,450 on May 20th. Spot silver rose by 1.7% and briefly returned to $29, but then the increase narrowed, still hovering at a six-week low.

Some analysts say that if the US core PCE data for May on Friday disappoints the financial market about the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, gold prices may fall to around $2,270. Gold prices are currently in a tug-of-war between the Fed's less dovish stance and escalating geopolitical tensions, but in the long run, as the global economy recovers from 2025, the strengthening of risk appetite will push down gold prices.

London's basic industrial metals rose and fell. The economic barometer "Dr. Copper" fell by $24 or 0.3%, approaching the round number of $9,500, setting a ten-week low since mid-April. London aluminum fell by 0.8%, falling below $2,500, hovering at a two-month low. London zinc, which rose by 2.4% yesterday, turned to a 0.4% decline, and London lead fell by another 0.6%, but London nickel slightly closed higher, hovering at a twelve-week low since early April, and London tin rose by 0.6%. Citigroup said that after the copper price correction, investors are looking to buy, and $9,500 per ton is a good entry point.

US September wheat futures hit a two-month low on Wednesday, then rebounded by 3.6% on Thursday, but fell by more than 17% in June, expected to be the worst single-month performance since June 2022 in two years, and has fallen by 11% this year.